Which countries does Russia feed with grain? (Wheat). Russia depends on imported seeds Grain imports to Russia
Over the past 20 years, the export of grain crops has been the main incentive for the growth and development of grain production. Finances received from the sale of grain go towards modernization technical equipment, purchase of new varieties and expansion of land. However, the Russian market is aimed not only at exports, but also at imports of wheat and its processed products. They are used in food and oil and gas industry, in the production of livestock feed and cosmetology.
Growing grain exports from Russia attract investment in the agricultural sector, and this makes it possible to improve the infrastructure of entire regions: build new railways, improve ports and elevators, and create jobs. With increasing investment, yields also increase to the level of those in France or Germany. This happens through the purchase of new varieties, modern fertilizers and pest and disease control products. The high quality of soft wheat varieties makes them competitive with grain from leading exporting countries. At the same time, the production of high-protein durum wheat is also growing.
Proof of positive changes in the grain industry is the expansion of the presence of Russian products on all four continents.
The development of the grain base is an incentive to improve the condition of:
- Feed base;
- Livestock;
- Poultry farming;
- Fisheries;
- Grain processing industry;
- Food Industry.
The expansion of crops leads to the development of production of equipment for Agriculture, mineral fertilizers and chemicals. Increased investment leads to increased yields, greater grain exports and implementation of the import substitution program in the production of meat and milk, bread and pasta, beer and alcoholic beverages.
Export of grain crops
In agriculture, the beginning of a new season is considered to be July 1 of the current year, and the end is June 30 of the next year.
Yields, exports and imports are measured per season, not per calendar year.
For the 2009/2010 season. 21.4 million tons were exported. wheat, but already in the next season the amount of grain decreased by almost half and amounted to 11.8 million tons.
In 2011/2012 — 15.2 million tons, in 2012/2013. — 15.7 million tons. Season 2012/2013 was a record - only 13.7 million tons. grain was exported. But a year later, the amount of exported raw materials increased to 22.1 million tons, which is 66% more than the same figure for 2013.
Since 2014, grain exports from Russia began to grow steadily. Based on the results of the 2014/2015 season. deliveries abroad amounted to 21.4 million tons, and already in the next season, export activity increased to 25 million tons. The total volume of grains together with legumes amounted to 35 million tons, which is almost 11% more than the previous year.
Exports for February 2018 - statistics
In the last agricultural season, 134.1 million tons were harvested in the Russian Federation. grain, which is 11.2% more than in 2016. According to the Federal Customs Service, as of January 30, 2018, about 43 million tons were exported from Russia in 2017. grain and 7 million tons. highly processed products. The value of exports amounted to $5.8 billion, which is 38% more than the previous season.
In January of this year, 3311.2 thousand tons were sold against 2450 thousand tons. January 2017. In the period from January to April 2017, the volume of export sales amounted to 108932.5 thousand tons, which is 363 thousand tons more than the same period in 2016. According to the news of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation in 2018, it is planned to export at least 120 million tons grains
Export crops
In addition to wheat, Russia sells corn, barley, buckwheat, millet and other grains and legumes. In 2017, about 5178.3 thousand tons of corn alone were exported, which is 154 thousand tons. less than 2016
The main importing countries are Korea and Türkiye, Iran and Vietnam.
Export supplies of barley are unstable and over the last 10 years have varied in the range of 2-5.5 million tons. Last season, about 4,635 thousand tons were sold. Where barley is exported: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran. They buy grain to feed camels, whose breeding is popular in the region.
Buckwheat was sold for almost $16 million, and its total weight was 49.25 thousand tons. About 75% of the total volume went to just 3 countries. In 2017, buckwheat was exported from Russia to Lithuania, Japan and Ukraine.
Sales of millet amounted to 69 thousand tons, and grain legumes - 1254 thousand tons. Of the grain legumes, the export of beans does not exceed 1000 tons. Türkiye and Ukraine in 2016/2017 are the main importers of beans from the Russian Federation. Other crops listed above are exported in small quantities. Over the past season, the amount of exported lentils did not exceed 16 thousand tons, and the main destinations for sale were Latvia, Iran, Bulgaria, Morocco and Turkey. In the same year, Russia supplied millet to Ukraine, Poland and Serbia. In total, millet accounts for about 0.3% of the total grain volume.
Who does Russia sell grain to?
Since 2001, Russian wheat exports have accounted for at least 14% of the global volume, which allowed the country to enter the top three, ahead of Canada and France.
And last year, Russia took first place for the first time, displacing Argentina and Ukraine.
In global trade, Russia's main competitors in the grain market are China, the USA and India. Due to large supplies of corn, the United States is recognized as a leader in the trade of grains and pulses. The main importers of Russian wheat are the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: they account for up to 70% of sales. Key directions: Egypt, Türkiye, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Azerbaijan. From the countries of the former USSR, in addition to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia are actively purchasing Russian grain. Russian grain is sold in smaller volumes to European and Latin American countries.
Today Russia supplies grain to almost 100 countries of the world, whereas 20 years ago there were no more than 70 importers of Russian products. At the beginning of the century, the main consumer of class 4 food wheat and feed wheat, as well as barley, was the European Union. After introducing new quotas and duties, expanding borders, the EU reduced supplies Russian grain. Now it accounts for about 9% of total exports.
Egypt is the leader in imports of wheat and other grains. Last year, almost 7.5 million tons were supplied to this country. At the same time, interest in the Russian product increased in countries neighboring Egypt - Sudan, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa.
In recent years, sales to countries in East, South and Southeast Asia have increased. In the 2011/2012 season. their share in the purchase was slightly more than 1%, but last year this figure increased 6.5 times. Market researchers suggest that further growth in grain purchases from the Russian Federation will be difficult due to competition with Australia. Given the same grain price, delivery from Australia is cheaper than from Russia.
The Russian Federation also supplies corn, sorghum, lentils, barley and wheat to South Korea, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Who bought grains from Latin American countries: Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Nicaragua. Supplies to this region are complicated by competition from the United States and an active domestic grain market.
Largest grain exporters
From July to September 2017, the 10 largest grain exporters in Russia accounted for more than 60% of total sales. This is approximately 7.8 million tons. Topped the list of companies trading house"Reef" from Rostov, which supplied almost 2 million tons. grains The second place is occupied by Glencore (USA, head office Krasnodar), which increased its export volume by 5%. The third position is held by the Aston company. French company Louis Dreyfus (head office in Moscow) took fourth place, increasing sales from 344 thousand tons. up to 687 thousand tons The top five is completed by a company from Krasnodar, KZP-Expo.
- ZernoTrade - Russia, head office in Taganrog;
- MiroGroup - Russia, head office in Krasnodar;
- Cargill - Kazakhstan, head office in Rostov-on-Don;
- Artis-Agro - Russia, head office in St. Petersburg;
- Outspan - USA, head office in Krasnodar.
For the period 2001-2015. The ranking of wheat exporting countries looks like this: the first three places are the USA, Canada and Russia. Next are: France, Australia, Germany, Ukraine, Romania and Kazakhstan. India rounds out the top ten. Among the countries influencing the market are Poland and Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Lithuania, Argentina and Latvia, the UAE and Mexico. Sweden and Uruguay, Denmark and Belgium, Moldova and Spain, and Greece have smaller export volumes.
Import of grain to Russia
On the world market, Russia acts not only as an exporter, but also as an importer of grain. Despite the fact that the Russian Federation almost completely supplies the domestic market with its own products, the country is forced to purchase new varieties, processed wheat products and high-quality grains that do not grow in Russia. Imports account for less than 1% of domestic production. In 2016, the volume of imports amounted to only 1 million tons.
Wheat imports in 2014 were even less - 369.5 thousand tons, in 2015 - 127 thousand tons. Russia imports milling wheat with a high percentage of gluten, as well as strong and valuable grain of the 3rd class. Wheat containing more than 23% gluten is necessary in the production of bread and bakery products top class. Third-grade wheat is usually added to softer varieties to improve the quality of flour, and the hard grain is used in the production of pasta.
The main grain imports to Russia are: rice, beans, barley and lentils. Among processed products, glucose and gluten, starches, and bioproducts are actively purchased. Another major purchase item is corn seeds. The share of imported seed material accounts for almost half of the total mass. The development of the processing industry, additional investments in agriculture and the organization of competition between enterprises in the Russian Federation will allow reducing the amount of imports.
In 2017, a record amount of grain was exported from Russia, and for the first time in two decades, the Russian Federation took a leading position among wheat exporting countries. To strengthen our positions, it is necessary to continue to improve cultivated lands, develop infrastructure and attract financial resources into this agricultural sector. A further increase in exports will improve the situation farms, solve food problems and problems of livestock feed supply.
The Republic of Kazakhstan is one of the leaders in the export of agricultural grain crops. The lion's share of this is made up of barley and wheat grain. Our article tells you about the peculiarities of international deliveries of this product.
Export of grain from the Republic of Kazakhstan:
Grain crops occupy an important place in the structure of Kazakhstan’s exports, second only to oil, petroleum products, metals and ores.
Since Soviet times, Kazakhstan has traditionally produced large quantities of grain, so it is not surprising that nowadays grain makes up about 10% of the country’s total exports.
Grain production in Kazakhstan is given Special attention. About 80% of the country's sown area is used for growing grain crops. Every year, Kazakhstan produces about 17 million tons of grain, and a little less than a third of this volume is exported.
This is also influenced by government measures aimed at supporting and developing agriculture.
Import:
Since Kazakhstan, as a rule, provides itself with grain in full, the share of imports is insignificant. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan does not refuse grain purchases. Especially in those years when the harvest within the country fails to reach the planned volumes. You can also remember 2014, when, due to the sharp depreciation of the ruble against the backdrop of world currencies, it became profitable for Kazakhstan to purchase grain from Russia for domestic consumption, imports from which were quite cheap.
Statistics by type of grain crop:
Among the grains grown and exported, the absolute leader in Kazakhstan is wheat - about 80% of the total grain volume. In terms of wheat supplies abroad, Kazakhstan is in the second ten exporting countries.
In second place after wheat, barley accounts for a significant share in production and exports.
Other grain crops grown in the country include corn, rice, oats, rye, and buckwheat. Their number is gradually increasing, but these crops cannot yet compete with wheat and even barley in terms of export volumes.
Geography of supplies:
Kazakhstan grain is supplied to the most different countries, however, a significant part of the total exported volume goes to the states of Central Asia - Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iran. In total, this region has accounted for about 90% of grain exports in recent years.
In addition, Kazakh grain is gradually penetrating other markets - China, EU countries, and the Middle East region.
Other countries where Kazakh grain is fighting for its market share include Egypt, Algeria, Turkey, South Africa, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. Certain volumes of grain are exported to Russia. True, in recent years, grain production in Russia itself has increased noticeably, so finding its place in Russian market It’s becoming more and more difficult for Kazakh farmers.
Grain is imported into Kazakhstan mainly from CIS countries - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine. Certain varieties of grains are periodically purchased in small quantities from more distant countries - Canada, Australia.
Features of international supplies of this category of products:
Since grains can spoil if improperly transported and stored, the supplier must pay great attention to the correct execution of these processes.
You can simplify your task by contacting foreign trade experts who can competently advise on all necessary documents, customs clearance, certification, declaration, and provide assistance at all stages of the transaction.
Cargo transportation:
The company "AGAPAS-EXPORT" in Kazakhstan provides its clients not only consulting services, but also organizes cargo transportation. If you need to export or import grain, we are ready to help with this. For our clients we organize international shipping various types transport. Depending on the route and volume of products, we use road, rail or sea transport. Air transportation is also available.
You can get detailed information about prices, services and work patterns by calling in Kazakhstan:. In addition, you can always leave a request on the website, and we will call you back!
The materials of the article include data on the export and import of wheat in the world in 2001-2014, an estimate for 2015 and forecast until 2025, the ratings of the main wheat exporting countries And wheat importing countries in 2014. The material is part of the encyclopedia of agribusiness from AB-Center. Go to home page Encyclopedia can be found at the link -.
The article was prepared by specialists of the Expert Analytical Center for Agribusiness "AB-Center" in 2016 based on statistical and forecast data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the Federal Customs Service RF, National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Statistics. Current and expanded data on the Russian and global grain market can be found by following the link -.
Wheat exports in the world
General volume of wheat exports in the world in 2014, according to the WTO, amounted to 175.2 million tons, which is 8.9% more than in 2013. For 5 years (relative to 2009) world trade wheat increased by 15.1%, over 10 years (by 2004) - by 46.2%, by 2001 - by 50.9% or by 59.1 million tons.
World wheat exports in 2015, according to OECD estimates, it is at the level of 151 million tons. The forecasts of this organization seem restrained, as no significant changes are expected in 2016, and by 2024 the increase in global wheat trade will be only 8.3% (compared to 2015).
Forecast data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows more dynamic development of global wheat trade. Thus, in the 2015/2016 agricultural year, world wheat exports, according to forecasts of this organization, will amount to 155.5 million tons, which is 0.4% or 0.6 million tons more than in the 2014/2015 agricultural year, and by 2024/2025 agricultural year will increase by 15.8% and in in kind will be 180 million tons.
Wheat exporting countries
In 2014, more than 100 countries exported wheat. At the same time, in 7 countries of the world, export volumes exceeded 10 million tons.
The share of the 10 largest exporting countries of this grain crop in 2014 accounted for 82.8% of the world volume. These countries are the USA, Canada, Russia, France, Australia, Germany, Ukraine, Romania, Kazakhstan and India.
The TOP 30 wheat exporting countries in the world account for 98.4% of total exports. The TOP 30 at the end of 2014, in addition to the above countries, included Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Argentina, Latvia, Mexico, Great Britain, UAE, Uruguay, Austria, Sweden, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Greece and Moldova.
Below are current and forecast trends in wheat exports in major exporting countries.
Wheat exports from the USA
The USA is the main exporter of wheat in the world. In 2014, their share in world exports of this grain crop was 14.6%, in physical terms this is 25.7 million tons. Over 10 years, compared to 2004, the volume of wheat exports from the United States decreased by 18.8% or almost 6.0 million tons. According to USDA forecasts, in the next 10 years, the volume of wheat exported from the United States by the 2024/2025 agricultural year will increase by 15.1% and will be in the range of 27.5-29.0 million tons. By 2024, according to OECD forecasts, US wheat exports will slightly exceed 28 million tons.
In 2014, wheat exports from the United States, according to the WTO, were carried out to 77 countries. The largest recipient countries of American wheat are Japan (11.6% of all US exports), Mexico (11.4%), Brazil (9.7%), the Philippines (9.2%) and Nigeria (8.7% ). The TOP 10 countries, in addition to the above, also included South Korea, Chinese Taipei, Indonesia, Colombia and Italy.
Wheat exports from Canada
Canada is the second largest supplier of wheat on the world market. In 2014, the country exported 24.1 million tons of wheat, which is 23.2% more than the volumes exported in 2013. Over 10 years (compared to 2004), wheat trade increased by 59.7% or 9.0 million tons. Canada's good export potential is ensured by the relatively low consumption of wheat within the country. According to the USDA, in the 2014/2015 agricultural year, the country's wheat needs amounted to 9.8 million tons, while production stood at 27.5 million tons and imports amounted to almost 0.5 million tons. Canada's wheat exports will trend downward over the next 10 years. Wheat consumption in the domestic market will increase. By the 2024/2025 agricultural year, wheat export volumes may decrease by 11.8% to 19.7 million tons. According to the OECD, by 2024, wheat exports from Canada will be at 22.4 million tons.
In 2014, Canada exported wheat to more than 70 countries. The largest recipient countries are the United States (14.2% of all exports), Japan (7.4%), Italy (6.3%), Indonesia (5.8%) and Peru (5.2%). The TOP 10 countries, in addition to the above, also included Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, Bangladesh and Algeria.
Export of wheat from Russia
In 2014, Russia closed the top three largest wheat exporters in the world, with export volumes, excluding trade with Belarus and Kazakhstan, at 22.1 million tons. This is 60.4% or 8.3 million tons more than the same figure for 2013. Over 5 years (compared to 2009), Russian wheat export volumes increased by 32.1%, over 10 years (compared to 2004) - by 373.4%, by 2001 - 13.5 times. At the end of 2014, Russia’s share in the structure of world wheat exports was 12.6%.
According to the OECD, the volume of wheat exports from Russia in 2015 is at the level of 18.3 million tons, the estimate for 2016 is at the level of 19 million tons. According to forecasts of the same organization, by 2024, Russian wheat exports will increase by 27.2% and amount to 23.3 million tons.
According to the USDA, in the 2014/2015 agricultural year, exports of this grain crop from the Russian Federation are at the level of 22.5 million tons; according to preliminary estimates for the next year, volumes may decrease by 17.2%. As for the forecast data, they look more optimistic. In the 2024/2025 agricultural year, Russian wheat export volumes will reach 27.5 million tons.
In 2014, Russian wheat was exported to 73 countries around the world. The key recipient countries during the period under review were Turkey (19.9% of all exports) and Egypt (18.3%). The top 10 largest, in addition to the above, also included Iran (6.2%), Yemen (4.4%), Azerbaijan (4.2%), Sudan (3.9%), South Africa (3.5% ), Nigeria (3.2%), Georgia (2.8%) and Kenya (2.4%). Other countries accounted for 31.3% of the total wheat exports from Russia.
France is also a major wheat exporter. In 2014, trade volumes of this grain crop amounted to 20.4 million tons, which is 3.9% or 0.8 million tons more than the same figure for 2013. Over 5 years (by 2009), the volume of wheat exports from France increased by 20.8%, over 10 years - by 37.9%, by 2001 - by 31.1%. At the end of 2014, France’s share in the structure of world wheat exports (TOP-30) was 11.6%. The main consumers during the period under review were Algeria - 4.6 million tons, the Netherlands - 2.1 million tons, Morocco - 1.9 million tons, Belgium - 1.8 million tons, Italy - 1.6 million tons, Spain - 1, 5 million tons and Egypt - 1.3 million tons. Large volumes of supplies were also carried out to Portugal, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Germany, Yemen, Cameroon, Cuba, the UK, Nigeria and a number of other countries. In total, wheat from France was exported to more than 80 countries.
Wheat exports from Australia
In 2014, wheat exports from Australia amounted to almost 18.3 million tons, which is 1.5% more than in 2013. Over 5 years they decreased by 11.7%, over 10 years - by 2.1%, compared to 2001 levels - by 0.2%. Australia's share of total world wheat exports in 2014 was 10.4%. The main consumers of Australian wheat in 2014 were Indonesia - 4.1 million tons, Vietnam - 1.4 million tons, China - 1.2 million tons, South Korea - 1.1 million tons, Malaysia - 1.1 million tons, Iran - 1.1 million tons. Deliveries were also made to Japan, Yemen, Iraq, Sudan, the Philippines, Nigeria, New Zealand, Thailand, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and a number of other countries. In total, wheat from Australia was exported to more than 50 countries around the world.
Wheat imports in the world
The volume of wheat imports in the world in 2014, according to the WTO, was at the level of 163.3 million tons, which is 10.5% more than in 2013. Over 5 years (compared to 2009), world wheat imports increased by 25.5%, over 10 years - by 49.8%, by 2001 - by 55.1%.
World wheat imports in 2015, according to OECD estimates, are at 150.9 million tons. The organization's forecasts for the coming decade appear restrained. No significant changes are expected in 2016, and by 2024, global imports could grow by 9.1% (compared to 2015).
USDA forecast data regarding global wheat imports looks more dynamic. Thus, in the 2015/2016 agricultural year, world imports of wheat, according to forecasts of this organization, will amount to 155.5 million tons, which is 0.4% or 0.6 million tons more than in the 2014/2015 agricultural year, and by 2024/2025 agricultural year will increase by 14.0%, in physical terms amounting to 180 million tons.
Below are current and forecast trends in wheat imports in the largest importing countries.
Wheat importing countries
In 2014, according to the WTO, 180 countries imported wheat. At the same time, in 4 countries, import volumes exceeded 7 million tons.
The share of the 10 largest importing countries of this grain crop in 2014 accounted for 38.1% of the world import volume. These countries are Italy, Indonesia, Algeria, Iran, Mozambique, Brazil, Japan, Turkey, Morocco and Spain.
The TOP 30 wheat importing countries in the world account for 74.0%. The TOP 30 at the end of 2014, in addition to the above countries, included Mexico, the Netherlands, Germany, South Korea, Belgium, the UAE, the USA, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Vietnam, Peru, South Africa, Colombia , UK, Sudan, Venezuela.
Import of wheat to Italy
In 2014, Italy became the largest importer of wheat with import volumes at 7.5 million tons, which is 29.5% or 1.7 million tons more than imported volumes in 2013. Italy's share of world wheat imports in 2014 was 4.6%. The key suppliers of wheat to the Italian market in 2014 were Canada - 1.6 million tons and France - 1.5 million tons. Large volumes of wheat were also supplied from Austria, Hungary, Germany, the USA, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia, Mexico, Russia and Australia. In total, wheat supplies to Italy during the period under review, according to WTO data, were carried out from 33 countries.
Wheat import to Indonesia
Indonesia is in second place in terms of wheat imports in 2014 - 7.4 million tons, which is 10.3% more than the imported volumes in 2013. Indonesia's share of world wheat imports in 2014 was 4.6%. Australia remains the key supplier of wheat to Indonesia during the period under review - 4.0 million tons. Significant volumes of supplies were carried out from Canada - 1.4 million tons and the USA - almost 1.0 million tons. Wheat was also imported in large quantities from India, Ukraine, and Russia. In total, in 2014, wheat was imported into Indonesia, according to the WTO, from 15 countries.
Wheat import to Algeria
Algeria is the third largest importer of wheat in the world by volume. In 2014, the country imported 7.4 million tons of this grain crop, which is 17.6% or 1.1 million tons more than the same indicators for 2013. Algeria's share in general structure wheat imports amounted to 4.5%. The key supplier of wheat to Algeria in 2014 is France - 4.7 million tons. Large volumes of supplies were also carried out from Mexico, Canada, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Great Britain, the USA, Australia, as well as a number of other countries. In total, in 2014, wheat was imported into Algeria, according to the WTO, from 14 countries.
Import of wheat to Iran
Iran took fourth place in the ranking of the largest wheat importing countries in 2014, with import volumes at 7.1 million tons. Official statistics do not have data on the volume of wheat imports in 2013. Iran's share in the world structure of wheat imports in 2014 was 4.4%. The key suppliers of wheat to the Iranian market in 2014 were Switzerland - 1.6 million tons and the UAE - 1.1 million tons. Wheat was also supplied in large volumes from Germany, Turkey, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Russia, Lithuania, Australia and a number of other countries. In total, in 2014, wheat was imported into Iran, according to the WTO, from 23 countries of the world.
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Food exports are one of the most sensitive indicators of the economic well-being of a state. The constant presence of vital food products on the market indicates that high quality products consumed by the population and independence from imports are ensured. At the same time, the weight and international authority of the country is strengthened. Let's consider what role grain exports from Russia have acquired today.
How grain exports from Russia developed
Russia took leadership in the European food market at the end of the 19th century, when income from the sale of grain provided almost half of the profit from trade. At the beginning of the 20th century, the country became an absolute leader. Her specific gravity in world grain production was:
more than 50% of rye production;
20% wheat;
33% barley;
Collectivization peasant farms The USSR in 1929–1930 was based on the ideological guidelines of that time (the liquidation of private property) without any assessment of the economic consequences. Excesses in the implementation of the ideas of a classless society intensified the resulting chaos. As a result, there was a sharp decline in agricultural production, primarily bread.
However, since 1930, the leadership of the USSR set the goal of regaining its lost position as Europe's main exporter. Intensive grain exports were dictated by the need to replenish foreign exchange reserves for the purchase of equipment and technologies for the accelerated industrialization of the country.
In 1930, 48.4 million centners of grain were sent for sale. In 1931, a severe drought struck. Poor. However, 51.8 million quintals were sent abroad. In 1932, famine began. We had to sharply reduce exports to 18 million quintals.
Subsequently, right up to the start of World War II, the strict state monopoly on commercial grain and export operations made it possible to maintain the course of industrial growth at any cost.
After the war, until the end of the 1950s, the extremely high level of grain exports was explained by the need to restore National economy, which gave rise to an acute internal shortage. The country had a card system for selling bread.
At the end of the 1950s, a number of changes occurred in the domestic policy of the USSR. The country began to move from exporting grain to importing to meet the needs of the population.
During the period of the formation of market relations in 1991–1993, grain exports practically ceased.
The resumption of exports (no longer from the USSR, but from Russia) in 1994 occurred against the backdrop of a decline in production and domestic demand for grain. Shadow market grain and grain products covered about 30% of trade turnover. In place of targeted government policy and a monopoly on exports, several dozen trading and intermediary firms emerged, focused solely on making a profit.
A qualitative leap occurred in the 2001–2002 harvest year. After 70 years of oblivion, a significant amount of grain was sent abroad. Russia has taken a worthy place in the top ten wheat exporting countries and in the top five barley producers. Progress was largely ensured by the growth of commodity production.
In 2003–2004 gross harvest decreased to 73.5 million tons; 6 million tons were sent abroad.
The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 led to a catastrophic drop in prices, and grain exports became economically unviable. The situation improved thanks to the devaluation of the ruble carried out by the Government in February 2009; as a result, grain exports reached the current maximum of 21 million tons.
Based on the results of 2009–2010. 21.4 million tons of grain were supplied to world markets.
Thanks to high quality Russian grain and competitive prices, in 2011 Russia managed not only to strengthen its position in traditional markets, but also to expand the circle of consumers to 84 countries.
In 2013–2014 25.9 million tons were sent abroad, which gave Russia fifth place in the world in grain exports, after the USA, EU countries, Ukraine and Canada. As economists noted, the world market has recognized Russia as the most important supplier of grain.
The 2016 harvest exceeded 119 million tons (wheat - 73.3 million tons) - a record figure for the entire post-Soviet history.
On June 10, 2016, the US Department of Agriculture presented a report from which it followed that for the first time in the last century, Russia became the world leader in wheat sales. Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 24.5 million tons, Canada - 22.5 million tons, and the USA - 21.1 million tons. Leadership was achieved mainly due to a record harvest in the south of the country.
Grain exports from Russia in 2016/2017 amounted to 36.9 million tons.
Grain exports from Russia in the modern economy
62,4 % Russian exports is provided with raw materials: oil, gas, coal, wood. Export share food products equal to 4.7%. Formally, these are incomparable values, if you do not take into account the political and humanitarian component of food trade and interaction with developing countries.
The main consumer of food wheat is Southern Europe, primarily Italy. The issue of returning grain exports to Turkey has recently been resolved. Very handy. Forage is exported mainly to the countries of the Middle East and Africa. Russian grain is quite competitive both in quality and price with the goods of its main rivals. The price difference is from 14 to 40%.
One of the unsolved problems of the industry is the unprofitability of exporting feed grain to Siberia and the Urals. Export terminals are located in the cities of the Black Sea basin: Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Taman. If the cost of transporting grain from the southern European part of Russia to these ports does not exceed 500 rubles ($17) per ton, then delivering grain from Siberia will cost from 1,500 ($50) to 2,000 rubles ($67).
The solution for some romantics seems to be the construction of a terminal in the Far East, which should receive grain for sale to the growing markets of Southeast Asia. A serious consideration of this project raises many objections. Firstly, the distance from the Urals and Western Siberia to the ports of the Far East is no less than to the Black Sea. Secondly, grain production throughout the entire space from the Urals to the Pacific Ocean in good years is no more than 15% of the total. There are few prospects for growth of cultivated areas in areas not affected by permafrost. Global warming is a long way off. “Far Eastern Hectare” will not save. Thirdly, the railway (the only means of delivery) is overloaded. And so on. Even the roughest estimates lead to the conclusion that the implementation of such a project is not economically feasible. It makes more sense to sell excess grain at the places where it is produced.
A more important problem that requires serious financial investment: the lack of required quantity modern grain harvesting equipment and other means of mechanization generate unjustified losses. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in 2016 Russia lost 10 million tons of grain (8.4% of the total harvest) due to a lack of combine harvesters. There are reasons to doubt that this figure is not underestimated.
34% of the total volume of Russian grain exports goes to the countries of the Middle East. The main buyers are Egypt and Türkiye.
Grain exports from Russia in 2016 brought in 5926.1 million US dollars, exceeding the 2015 figures by $53.9 million, but they were less than in 2014 by $1330.3 million.
According to official statistics, as of September 1, 2017, grain exports from Russia amounted to 6.9 million tons, 28% more than in the previous season (5.4 million tons). At the same time, wheat exports reached 5 million tons, exceeding last year’s level by 4.5 million tons. Barley exports almost doubled, and corn exports increased 12 times (to 502 thousand tons).
Export dynamics individual species grain leguminous crops in 2014-2016 presented in Table 1.
Table 1. Dynamics of exports of grain legumes.
Forecasts for grain exports from Russia in the near future
Russian Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev said at the Eastern Economic Forum on September 5, 2017: “Russia has every opportunity to increase grain exports. In the coming years, export volumes could reach 60-70 million tons.”
Note: it was said cautiously (“has capabilities”), with the caveat that this is still hampered by “limited infrastructure.”
Positive aspects of this season: the inclusion of Asian countries in the trade sphere and unprecedented exports of barley and corn. The main concern is the infrastructure, which is becoming increasingly difficult to cope with growing production volumes.
Experts note that the quality of Russian wheat is higher than French and Ukrainian. And they consider the export forecast realistic – up to 44 million tons. In terms of foreign currency, this means approximately $7–8 billion. The same forecast was voiced by A. Tkachev, who expressed confidence that in short time Russia will be able to regain its leadership in grain exports.
Certain hopes are pinned on the growth of transactions with China, which has recently demonstrated increased activity in cooperation with our country. China's largest food corporation COFCO plans to purchase up to 4-5 million tons of wheat. Note that China buys about a third of its wheat from America.
Important details:
- Wheat prices have stabilized. Today contracts are concluded at prices of $185–186 per ton.
- Current grain export values are 28% higher than last year.
The total volume of grain from the federal intervention fund as of September 1, 2017 is 3.98 million tons, equivalent to 36.56 billion rubles.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, it was assumed that in the 2017/2018 season the grain harvest will be 100–105 million tons. However, cold weather in May delayed planting in the western regions, and in some places crops were flooded and damaged by hail. At the same time, in Siberia and the Urals the weather turned out to be exceptionally hot and dry. As a result, the bad weather did not cause any serious damage. In addition, the winter crop harvest was 1.3 million tons higher than expected. Therefore, it turned out that the Ministry of Agriculture’s estimates turned out to be more modest than the actual data. According to the latest estimates, the grain harvest in Russia in 2017 will be 132.2 million tons. The record of 127.4 million tons of grain, shown in 1978 in the USSR, was broken.
The planned grain exports from Russia in 2017 – 40 million tons – can be adjusted upward.
Contrary to the forecasts of the American Ministry of Agriculture, Russia is again the leader in grain exports.
Let us note that economics is not a sporting competition. According to the President of the Russian Grain Union A. Zlochevsky, if we end up even in last place, but earn decent money, this should suit us. And if, being in first place, we receive losses, then who needs it? It should be borne in mind that this season, many countries that were importers themselves received fairly high harvests, which is why the demand for wheat decreased by 3 million tons. We expected that, having resources that were 5 million tons more than last season, we would be able to suppress competitors and “clear the clearing” for 8 million tons. And they miscalculated.
The situation in the export economy is most accurately characterized by price dynamics. In 2014, a ton of wheat in the Black Sea ports cost $320, in 2015 – $250, in 2016 – $200, and this year it dropped to $160–180 per ton. The fall in prices is associated with a positive trend in the average harvest of market participants.
There is a risk of stopping grain sales to Egypt, which is our largest buyer (18%). The outcome of the proceedings in an Egyptian court, where a lawsuit demanding the complete absence of ergot in wheat, could be catastrophic. Note that the global standard allows the level of ergot within 0.05%. Although it is realistically impossible to fulfill the requirement for the complete absence of ergot, satisfying the claim threatens to break existing contracts with Egypt.
During 2016–2017, despite transport difficulties, supplies of Russian grain to Asian countries reached 3 million tons. This is a modest share of the region’s total grain imports – 5%. However, a fortunate coincidence arose. Droughts in Australia, Canada and the United States and rising grain demand are boosting grain exports from Russia to Asia, which consumes about a third of global wheat production.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the ruble will strengthen in 2017. According to the main scenario, the average annual dollar exchange rate will be 59.7 rubles. Question: is this good or bad for the Russian economy? Which industries benefit from a strong ruble?
The answer of the Bank of Russia: “Yes.” So how are u ruble strengthening has a positive effect on profitability in capital-intensive activities focused primarily on domestic demand.
Deputy Minister of Finance Alexey Moiseev answers: “No.” Since Due to the strengthening of the ruble, exporting companies showed significantly weaker results than expected.
The strengthening of the ruble will lead to a decrease in grain exports and a loss of competitiveness in the Middle Eastern markets. We've already been through this.
Does grain export from Russia affect domestic production?
Will Russia have enough of its own wheat to produce bread?
As stated in the materials of a special meeting in the Federation Council, due to the high harvest, there was a shortage of high-quality 3rd class wheat, which is used to produce bread.
Bakers and confectioners did not confirm the point of view of the Federation Council: there is no shortage of wheat for bread production anywhere in Russia and is not expected. The issue was closed.
To be fair, we note that in Russia there are few regions where you can get grade 1 and 2 wheat, from which good bread should be made. For baking, 3rd class grain is most often used with the addition of better quality grain. GOSTs, liberalized in the post-Soviet period, allow this. Then improvers come into play.
An acceptable solution to assessing safe export limits must be found in the near future. Experts warn that a repeat of a high harvest could lead to a collapse in grain prices. "Scary low prices"could, in their opinion, lead to a disaster in the market. Since there are no drivers for significant growth in consumption within the country, the situation on the market will be dictated by exports. And the 37.5 million tons of exports predicted by the Ministry of Agriculture is the minimum volume necessary to maintain a normal balance.
According to experts, Russia will retain its position as a leader in grain exports if only it fulfills the minimum export program. One of the reasons for the leadership is the fall in grain production in the European Union, which has temporarily dropped out of the top league of exporters.
The 2017/18 grain season turned out to be unusual for Russian farmers. In 2017, the historical record for grain harvest was updated, amounting to 135.4 million tons. Since 2016 also saw a high grain harvest (120.7 million tons), a high volume of reserves formed in the market, putting pressure on domestic prices. Thus, average prices for fourth-grade wheat in the European part of Russia in the first half of the season decreased to minimums since the 2014/15 season. However, in the second half of the season, grain prices actively increased, largely due to record export rates.
Grain export
According to the preliminary assessment of the analytical center " Rusagrotrans", grain exports from Russia in the 2017/18 season amounted to a record 53.3 million tons compared to 35.5 million tons in the 2016/17 agricultural year. And taking into account grain legumes (1.36 million tons), flour (0.35 million tons) and exports to EAEU countries(0.98 million tons), the total volume of supplies abroad is estimated at almost 56 million tons versus 37 million tons a year earlier.
On average, about 4.44 million tons of main grain crops were exported monthly, while in 2016/17 this figure was about 3 million tons. Five times - in September, November, December, March and April - it was reached and exceeded level of 5 million tons. The largest volume was shipped to foreign markets in November - more than 5.5 million tons.
The export of wheat, the main Russian agricultural export crop, reached 41.07 million tons at the end of the 2017/18 season. This is 14.1 million tons more than in the previous agricultural year. With this indicator, Russia became the world's largest wheat exporter for the second time in history. The second place this season was taken by the EU with 24 million tons (USDA forecast). Over the entire season, 6.2 million tons of barley were supplied abroad (plus 3.4 million tons compared to the 2016/17 volume), corn - 5.7 million tons (plus 0.46 million tons). These are also record levels for Russia.
Such high exports were possible for several reasons. Firstly, this was facilitated by a record wheat harvest (85.9 million tons), as well as high yields of barley (20.6 million tons - the maximum since 2008) and corn (13.2 million tons, the second figure after the record year of 2016, when 15.3 million tons were collected). Secondly, the government introduced a preferential tariff for grain transportation by rail from a number of regions remote from ports Central Russia, Volga region, Urals and Siberia. Thirdly, the increase in export prices for Russian wheat, which since February 2018 has been trading above $200/t - such levels have been recorded for the first time since 2015. Fourthly, the export infrastructure, which turned out to be capable of exporting over 5 million tons of grain per month.
By sea
The 2017/18 season was marked by records for grain transshipment in all directions. Especially through the ports of Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Kavkaz (where volumes from small ports go for offshore transshipment), small ports, as well as the ports of the Baltic and Caspian Sea. The largest volume was sent abroad through Novorossiysk grain terminals - 18.2 million tons versus 12.2 million tons a year earlier. Small ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin collectively shipped almost 16 million tons compared to 10.7 million tons in 2016/17. The Caucasus significantly increased transshipment - up to 5.2 million tons versus 3 million tons in the previous agricultural year. Moreover, about 11.8 million tons will actually be exported through this port during the season, since most of the volume exported through it passes through customs in small ports. The port of Tuapse increased shipments by 55% to 2.5 million tons, and Taman by 19% to 3.9 million tons. Russian Baltic ports increased transshipment from 882 thousand tons to 971 thousand tons, and the Baltic ports - from 666 thousand tons to 1.7 million tons. The total export of grain through all Russian ports in the 2017/18 agricultural year was about 50.6 million tons versus 32.7 million tons in 2016/17.
The total capacity of Russian ports, according to “ Rusagrotrans", in the ended agricultural year amounted to about 55 million tons. Over the next five years, due to ongoing projects in the South, North-West, and Far East, it can increase by at least 30 million tons. In particular, the implementation of the OTEKO project is expected in the South the port of Taman has a transshipment capacity of 12.5 million tons of grain and 2 million tons of other agricultural cargo. It will continue modernization with an increase in transshipment from 7 million tons to 10 million tons. The AZTK terminal project has been announced for implementation ( TD "Reef") in Azov. It is planned to be built from 2020 to 2022. In the North-West, in 2021-2022, it is planned to build a terminal of the Novotrans Group of Companies in the port of Ust-Luga with a capacity of up to 6 million tons of grain and a terminal for the export of other agricultural goods (meal/cake, pulp, etc.). A significant part of the volumes of grain and other agricultural cargo passing through the Baltic ports (in total more than 3 million tons) will most likely be redirected there. The project of the co-owner of the Factor timber terminal in Primorsk (Leningrad Region), designed to transship 2 million tons of grain, is scheduled for completion in 2022. And in the Far East, it is planned to implement the Far Eastern Grain Terminal project in the port of Zarubino (“ OZK") with a transshipment capacity of up to 33.5 million tons for the purpose of export and transit of Chinese grain from the northeastern provinces of China to the southern ones. The commissioning date for the first stage with a capacity of 3 million tons is 2021, the second stage with a capacity of 10 million tons is 2023.
And by rail
During the 2017/18 season, grain export shipments by railway also increased. Thus, from October 2017 to January 2018, they amounted to about 1.7 million tons per month versus 1.1-1.5 million tons in previous years, and by March-April of this year, more than 1,000 tons were already unloaded for export. 9 million tons monthly. The peak was noted in April - 1.94 million tons, while a year earlier only 986 thousand tons were transported in this month. In general, a historically record volume of 19 million tons was exported by rail. This is more than last year’s result 1.76 times.
Regionally, the railway also showed records. All regions of the country, with the exception of the South of Russia (North Caucasus Railway), supplied the highest volumes of grain for export in history. In July-May 2017/18, the Volga region shipped 4.5 million tons of grain by rail (3.4 times more than the same period in 2016/17), the Central Black Earth Region - 6.1 million tons (a twofold increase), Siberia - 1.2 million tons (six times), Ural - 642 thousand tons (four times).
The share of the southern regions in export rail transportation continues to decline, amounting to only 8% in May 2018 compared to 61% at the beginning of the season. In the second half of the agricultural year, shipments from the Volga region and the Center prevailed, their share increased to 37% for each region (from 21% and 26% in September 2017, respectively). Throughout the season, supplies from Siberia and the Urals grew.
Record shipments for export by rail in July-May of the 2017/18 season were carried out from all grain-producing regions, including Volgograd (1.8 million tons versus 679 thousand tons a year earlier), Saratov (1.69 million tons versus 462 thousand tons), Kursk (1.33 million tons against 562 thousand tons), Tambov (1.16 million tons against 492 thousand tons) and others. And even from points remote from the ports - Orenburg (494 thousand tons versus 115 thousand tons in July-May 2016/17), Omsk (396 thousand tons versus 117 thousand tons) and Novosibirsk (310 thousand tons versus 9 thousand . t) regions. All these regions, except Volgograd region, received subsidies to compensate for losses during the transportation of grain cargo by rail, which was an additional incentive for the growth of supplies.
However, against the backdrop of active exports from the Volga region and the Center for export shipment from the Stavropol and Krasnodar Territories, it is noticeably lower than previous seasons - 2.67 million tons for 11 months of 2017/18 versus 3.16 million tons for the same period in 2016/17 and 1.36 million tons versus 1.7 million tons, respectively.
In general, the increase in Russian grain exports from 35.5 million tons to 53.3 million tons will be achieved by 45% through the railway.
Import demand will decrease by 1.5 million tons
Svetlana Malysh, Agricultural Market Analyst, Black Sea Region, Thomson Reuters
According to our forecast, grain exports from Russia in the 2017/18 season amounted to 51-51.5 million tons, including 39-39.5 million tons of wheat, almost 6 million tons of barley and about 5.5 million tons of corn. In recent years, Russian wheat has been in demand on the world market in terms of price-quality ratio, which is confirmed by record export shipments.
High demand for Russian grain in sales markets is displacing previously traditional suppliers - such as the USA, Europe and Australia. Moreover, events taking place in Russia and the Black Sea region as a whole often began to influence the global price environment, the main indicator of which can be considered futures prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange. The launch of futures contracts for Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange, as well as price indicators from various world agencies that reflect the real situation at the regional level, only emphasizes the importance of the Black Sea region for the world grain market. After all, in total, the countries of this zone, including Russia and Ukraine, supplied more than 30% of wheat to the world market in the 2017/18 agricultural year.
In the new season, Thomson Reuters does not predict significant changes in the structure of grain exports from Russia. The main export position remains wheat with a protein content of 12.5%, which has actually already become a kind of brand on the world market. As for the expected market conditions in the main countries that purchase Russian grain, the import demand of the main consumers in the 2018/19 agricultural year will decrease by 1.4-1.5 million tons. However, a possible decrease in external demand for the main grain crops of Russian origin will be offset by a decrease in export potential.
Who's buying
Egypt topped the ranking of the largest buyers of Russian grain for the third season in a row. In July-May, the country imported more than 8.6 million tons, increasing volumes by 30.3% compared to last year. This is a record figure. Turkey's purchases look even more impressive, primarily in terms of growth rates. It increased the import of Russian grain by 131% to 7.1 million tons, and this is second place in the top. It is worth noting that shipments to Turkey are carried out mainly through small ports. Less than 14% of the agricultural year was sent there through deep-sea terminals in the 11 months of the 2017/18 agricultural year. The third largest buyer this year is Iran; the country increased imports by more than 57% to 2.46 million tons. Russia carries out shipments to this country mainly through Caspian ports. Bangladesh, which occupied third position in July-May in the 2016/17 season, dropped to seventh place in the past agricultural year. The state is one of the few that, albeit slightly, reduced purchases compared to the same period a year earlier - by 2.1% to 1.9 million tons.
In fourth place in the 2017/18 season is Saudi Arabia - plus 80.8% of last year's volumes - 2.1 million tons. The top 5 importers are closed by Vietnam, which increased imports by 183.5% to 2.1 million tons. Sudan also showed good dynamics in the current season - plus 136% to 1.97 million tons. Lebanon and Nigeria, located in eighth and ninth positions, increased purchases of Russian grain by 32% and 23.2%, respectively - to 1.57 million tons and 1.51 million tons. Indonesia, which closes the list of the ten largest buyers, increased imports 4.2 times from 330 thousand tons to 1.39 million tons.
Latvia also showed a good increase in July-May 2017/18 (grain was exported to third countries through its ports) - three times to 1.15 million tons, the UAE doubled its volumes - to 12.2 million tons, 2.2 times Mexico - up to 704 thousand tons, 2.3 times Jordan - up to 589 thousand tons, 5.6 times Qatar - up to 293 thousand tons, 28 times the Philippines - up to 421 thousand tons. A new significant buyer of Russian grain became Venezuela, which purchased 384 thousand tons since the beginning of the season.
There were also those who reduced their volumes. Azerbaijan, which imports Russian grain by rail, imported 6.4% less in July-May 2017/18 - 1.2 million tons (11th position). Libya reduced its imports by more than half - from 709 to 345 thousand tons, and Morocco by 1.7 times to 462 thousand tons.
In total, the top 30 largest purchasing countries imported more than 45 million tons of Russian grain in the season that ended. And this is more than 90% of the total export volume.
Who sells
The country's thirty largest exporters sent abroad 78% of all grain exported from Russia in July-May of the 2017/18 season. The leader of the rating, as well as in the list of importers, also did not change. For the fourth season in a row it is headed by Rostov TD "Reef". The company exported almost 61% more than during the same period of the 2016/17 season - 6.7 million tons, which is almost 13.5% of the total volume of Russian exports. In second place, also traditionally, “ Glencore", which increased exports by 62.7% to 5.04 million tons. The company's share is about 10%. “Moved to third position from fourth in the 2016/17 agricultural year.” Aston" Its export volumes increased by 45% to 3.2 million tons. Swapping places with Aston “ Cargill" is now on the fourth line. It slightly reduced shipments (-4.5%), delivering 2.57 million tons abroad. At the end of the top 5 are “ Louis Dreyfus": 2.3 million tons, or plus 34.1% to last year's volumes.
Each of the ranking participants from 5th to 11th place exported more than 1 million tons over the 11 months of the 2017/18 season. A year earlier, there were nine companies that crossed this milestone. The sixth position in the top is taken by Zerno-Trade, which increased exports by 1.5 times to 2.3 million tons. In seventh place is MiroGroup: 1.95 million tons, which is 13.8% more than a year earlier. Eighth - " KZP-Expo" - 1.8 million tons (plus almost 34%), ninth - " Artis-Agro" with volumes of 1.7 million tons (plus 82%). Closing the top ten largest exporters " OZK" this season increased exports almost 2.5 times to 1.45 million tons. And located in 11th place " Outspan» shipped 1.35 million tons to foreign markets, increasing shipments by 41.7%.
Among those who have significantly increased export volumes are: “ South of Rus'" and "GarantLogistic". Both companies tripled exports in July-May - to 894 thousand tons and 684 thousand tons, respectively. Shipped 2.6 times more grain " Agromarket"(374 thousand tons), added the same amount Agroholding "Steppe"(362 thousand tons). Agronefteprodukt (342 thousand tons) and Olinsky Trade House (256 thousand tons) doubled their supplies, while Daylesford Merchant (226 thousand tons) expanded their supplies eightfold. Two new players also made it into the top 30 this season: “Center of Rus'”, which is in 24th place with volumes of 300 thousand tons (in the 2016/17 season the company was not an exporter), and “ Prodimex“—28th position with 253 thousand tons (for the same period a year earlier, the holding exported only 6 thousand tons).
However, there are also those in the top 30 who have reduced exports. A significant decline in shipments was observed at the Southern Center (USC) - from 1.49 million tons for 11 months of 2016/17 to 597 thousand tons for the same period in the completed season. With such volumes, the company dropped from seventh to 15th place. KOFKO Agri also lost several positions, reducing exports by 20% to 567 thousand tons, and this is the 16th line of the rating. Globex Grain also shipped 48.5% less. In July-May, it exported 254 thousand tons, which is almost half as much as a year earlier.
Prospects 2018/19
The weather conditions for the 2018 harvest are worse than last season. In recent weeks, the drought in the South has intensified, and dry weather has also been observed in the Center. In Siberia, there remains a high lag in sowing (-2 million hectares compared to the last season as of June 9). However, due to a favorable winter and good conditions in the spring, a critical reduction in harvest is not yet expected. In the new season, exports are also likely to be significant. Continued subsidies for transportation could support exports if such a decision is made. Ministry of Agriculture proposes to introduce a preferential tariff for the transportation of grain with a total volume of 1 million tons from the Orenburg, Kurgan, Novosibirsk, Omsk regions and Krasnoyarsk Territory.
The forecast for the harvested area of winter grains in Russia for the 2018 harvest is 16.4 million hectares (16.8 million hectares in 2017), spring grains - 30.4 million hectares (30.9 million hectares). Based on this, the total harvest of grain and leguminous crops could be about 120 million tons (135.4 million tons last year). Including the wheat harvest is preliminary estimated at 73.5 million tons (85.9 million tons in 2017), barley - 18.4 million tons (20.6 million tons), corn - 14.4 million tons (13. 2 million tons).
The main uncertainty factors for the forecast of the new harvest are the consequences of drought in the South and delays in spring sowing in Siberia. The estimated grain harvest in the Southern Federal District is approximately 32.3 million tons (35.8 million tons in 2017), in the Siberian Federal District - 11.8 million tons (15.8 million tons). The farmers of the center can produce about 30.3 million tons of grain (31.9 million tons in 2017), in the Volga region - 25.9 million tons (30.6 million tons).
Due to extremely high exports, grain reserves at the end of the 2017/18 season were lower than previously predicted. But they will still reach a record level of 20 million tons against 18.8 million tons at the end of the 2016/17 agricultural year. In the free market, according to “ Rusagrotrans", will remain up to 16.2 million tons against 14.8 million tons a year earlier, in the state intervention fund - another 3.8 million tons versus 4 million tons at the end of the previous season. According to the data Rosstat As of May 1, grain reserves amounted to about 26.8 million tons, which is 12.6% more than a year ago.
The price for the new wheat harvest this year is set at $205/t FOB versus $184/t in 2017. And the calculation of domestic prices based on FOB quotes shows that their level in August 2018 may be higher than at the beginning of the 2017/18 season. Thus, fourth class wheat with a protein of 12.5% excluding VAT in Saratov region may cost approximately 7.2 thousand rubles/t (a year earlier - 6.75 thousand rubles/t), and in the Krasnodar Territory - 8.45 thousand rubles/t (8.1 thousand rubles/t T).
The author is the head of the analytical center "Rusagrotrans
" Center specialist Alexey Egorov participated in the preparation of the article. The article was written specifically for Agroinvestor.
We need to invest in infrastructure development
Evgeny Sidyukov, General Director of Krasnodarzernoproduct-Expo (KZP-Expo)
In the 2017/18 season, we exported 2 million tons of grain, which is 400 thousand tons more than in 2016/17. The growth of shipments to foreign markets was facilitated by a program to subsidize rail transportation of grain for export from distant regions - thanks to it, exports from the Central Federal District and Siberia increased.
It is worth recognizing that the level of grain export prices for agricultural producers in the past agricultural year was low. But for us, the profitability of export operations remained the same as in the previous season. At the same time, some of the risks disappeared, including non-refund of VAT and short delivery of goods. Today we work directly with farmers, we conclude an agreement, and they have no chance of violating their obligations under it. Deliveries were carried out on time and in the volumes specified in the contracts.
However, there were also factors that negatively affected traders. In particular, currency volatility and the lack of transshipment capacity in Russia. Therefore, we can say that investing in infrastructure is one of the primary tasks. Our company also has certain “investment relationships” with ports. We are developing joint programs for the construction of receiving and shipping facilities.
In the coming agricultural year, we expect export volumes and margin levels to remain unchanged. However, there are fears that the year will be a lean year, and then, accordingly, grain shipments abroad will decrease.