Modern structure of Russian exports and imports. Russian trade turnover analysis of individual items of export, import and foreign trade balance of the Russian Federation
Falling world energy prices
As well as international economic sanctions in force against Russian Federation since 2014, accompanied by a retaliatory Russian embargo on a number of imports, could not but affect the dynamics of indicators foreign trade Russia this year.
According to data from the Central Bank of Russia, cited by Rosstat, in January-May 2016, the Federation’s foreign trade turnover amounted to almost $172 billion, which is equal to only 75.5% of the level for the same period last year. Exports - $104.3 billion (less than 69% of January-May 2015) and imports - $67.6 billion (less than 89%). The balance is positive, at $36.7 billion. It should be noted that this figure collapsed by more than twice as compared to the balance for the same period in 2015 ($75.4 billion). The numbers speak for themselves. Russia's foreign economic activity is curtailing.
The topic of this material is
analysis of individual items of export, import and foreign trade balance of the Russian Federation
for January-May 2016. The basis for the assessment is information from the Federal Trade Service (FTS), which differs somewhat from the information of the Central Bank, but is accepted by experts as more accurate. Differences in gross values are within a few percent.
Export of the Russian Federation
From the above diagram it follows that despite the decrease in the scale of foreign trade, in relative figures in the structure Russian exports little has changed. Almost a quarter comes from crude oil, and natural gas accounts for more than 12%. In total, hydrocarbons account for about 37%. More than 1/3!
Another export item that accounts for more than 10% of foreign exchange earnings is metallurgical products. Also, quite a raw material component.
Russian import
Everything here is also quite predictable. Almost half (44.5%) - industrial goods: instruments and equipment, mechanical engineering, transport. All that Russia has not learned to do. And will he learn... But under sanctions, not everything can be bought. Even for petrodollars. Imported chemical products also have a high share - almost 20%.
Foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation
Almost $170 billion total foreign trade turnover(data from the Federal Customs Service) by country was distributed as follows:
The main trading partner of the Russian Federation is the European Union, relations with which are now oh so difficult. He has almost 44%. The main “European Union” part belongs to Germany - almost $15 billion out of $74.5 billion (20.1%). In addition to Germany, 59% of turnover with the EU is provided by the Netherlands, Italy, France and the UK. Kind, old and very developed Western Europe. Its "economic heart".
China's share is 13.4%. It is growing, but I would like the pace to be faster. However, the Celestial Empire has surpassed its closest neighbors - the CIS with their 12.2%. The traditional largest neighboring partners are Belarus (5.2% of total turnover) and Kazakhstan (2.7%).
The United States looks like an outsider against this background - only 4.1%. Even Belarusians were ahead of the Americans. Why be surprised? The United States is the main ideologist of the anti-Russian sanctions policy. And it will, apparently, not end very, very soon.
Characteristic current state socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in terms of foreign economic sphere, main indicators and analysis of social, financial and economic risks
Preliminary results of socio-economic developmentRussian Federation for 2019
World the economic growth in 2019, according to preliminary estimates, slowed down significantly (to 2.9% after 3.6% in 2018) and fell below 3.0% for the first time since 2009.
The aggravation of trade tensions between the largest economies led to a decrease in the growth rate of world trade to the levels observed in 2015-2016. In addition, increased uncertainty regarding the international “rules of the game” had a negative impact on investment activity and demand for durable consumer goods.
As global growth forecasts worsen central banks many countries cut rates, which led to a softening of global financial conditions. At the same time, for many emerging market countries, the positive effect of the resumption of capital inflows was offset by weakening external demand.
In the context of slowing global growth, the average annual price of Urals oil in 2019 dropped to $63.8 per barrel after $70.0 per barrel in 2018.
At the same time, on the supply side, oil prices were supported by OPEC+ agreements to limit production, as well as a decrease in oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela.
The average annual ruble exchange rate was 64.7 rubles per US dollar (after 62.5 in 2018).
At the same time, during the year there was a tendency towards the strengthening of the Russian currency: by December 2019, the ruble strengthened by 7.5% compared to the corresponding month of the previous year and became one of the leaders among the currencies of countries with emerging markets.
Height foreign investment into the Russian economy (both non-resident investments in OFZs and foreign direct investments in the non-financial sector) supported the financial account balance, which at the end of 2019 was a slight plus - 1.8 billion US dollars (after an outflow of 76.5 billion US dollars in 2018).
Expected results of socio-economic developmentRussian Federation
in 2020, including foreign economic sphere
After a significant slowdown in global economic growth in 2019 (to 2.9% from 3.6% a year earlier), global growth is expected to stabilize at current levels this year.
Growth will be supported by the agreement between the United States and China on the “first part” of the trade deal, the implementation of measures to stimulate economic activity in China and the continued loose monetary policy of the world’s leading central banks. At the same time, accumulated structural problems both in developed economies and in countries with emerging markets, as well as the exhaustion of the stimulating effect of tax reform in the United States, will hinder the recovery of global economic growth rates.
Under these conditions, the price of Urals oil is expected to decrease to USD 57.7 per barrel on average for 2020 after USD 63.8 per barrel in 2019. At the same time, the expected average annual price for Urals oil this year is slightly increased compared to the September forecast ($57.0 per barrel) due to higher indicators in the first quarter due to increased tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of the year, as well as the OPEC+ decision to further reduce production in January-March.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, there was a strengthening of the ruble against the US dollar (by 3.9% in the fourth quarter in nominal terms) against the backdrop of the continued influx of non-resident funds into the OFZ market and a decrease in risk premiums. At the beginning of 2020, this trend continued: on average, the Russian currency exchange rate for the month was 61.7 rubles per US dollar, compared to 62.9 rubles per US dollar in December last year. While the ruble is expected to weaken gradually by the end of 2020, taking into account the dynamics at the beginning of the year, the forecast for the average annual ruble/US dollar exchange rate has been adjusted to 63.9 compared to 65.7 rubles per US dollar envisaged in the September forecast.
In 2020, GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 1.9% after 1.4%1 in 2019. The expected GDP growth rate for 2020 was increased compared to the base version of the September forecast (1.7%) taking into account the assessment of the effect of the measures contained in the Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on January 15, 2020.
In 2020, export growth is also expected to accelerate (primarily non-commodity, non-energy goods), taking into account exporters’ adaptation to the slowdown in global economic growth.
Updated forecast of socio-economic development forplanned
period 2021 and 2022 (with a view to 2024)
The forecast of socio-economic development for the period until 2024 contains the premise that the growth rate of the world economy will remain at low levels by historical standards (2.8-2.9%). Against the background of weak global growth dynamics, a further decline in oil prices is expected (from $57.7 per barrel in 2020 to $53.0 per barrel in 2024), as well as for other Russian commodity exports.
At the same time, the implementation of budget policy in accordance with “fiscal rules” will limit the influence of trends in foreign markets on internal economic parameters.
Under these conditions, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies in nominal terms will be determined primarily by the inflation differential between Russia and trading partner countries. At the same time, the weakening of the ruble against the US dollar will be even more moderate (from levels of about 66 rubles per US dollar in 2021 to 67-68 in 2024) due to the expected weakening of the US dollar over the forecast horizon.
The basic scenario includes the successful implementation of structural economic policy measures aimed at achieving national development goals and other priorities established by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2018 No. 204 “On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024” . The specified measures implemented both within the framework of the management mechanism national projects, and beyond, will ensure a transition to a growth model based, on the one hand, on the rapid growth of investment in fixed capital, on the other, on a sustainable expansion of consumption based on growth in household incomes.
In 2021-2022, GDP growth rates are expected to accelerate to 3.1-3.2 percent.
In 2023-2024, the growth rate will reach 3.3% annually. High rates of economic growth will be due to increased investment activity, increased competitiveness of the Russian economy and the realization of foreign economic potential. Accelerating economic growth will allow Russia to overtake Germany in terms of GDP in PPP terms and, starting in 2022, to take 5th place in the list of the world's largest economies.
Export growth in the forecast period will mainly be supported by increased growth rates of non-oil and gas exports, thanks to the active development of non-resource manufacturing industries. As a result, the real export growth rate in 2021-2022 is projected at 3.7-3.9%, followed by an acceleration to 5.0-5.7% in 2023-2024.
The key risk of the current forecast is the possibility of a deterioration in the situation in the global economy, including in the short term due to the deterioration of the epidemiological situation and the associated decline in the growth rate of the Chinese economy and the negative reaction of financial markets.
Preliminary results foreign trade activities in 2019
Based on the results of January-November 2019 foreign trade turnover amounted to 604.5 billion US dollars, decreasing by 3.3% compared to January-November 2018. Exports of goods decreased by 6.0% to 383.5 billion US dollars, imports increased by 1.7% to 220.9 billion US dollars.
In the geographical structure of Russia’s foreign trade, the European Union occupies a special place (41.8% of Russian trade or $252.6 billion in January-November 2019). Trade turnover with the EU decreased by 6.0%, including imports by 1.7% and exports by 7.8 percent.
Structure of foreign trade turnover by groups of countries in January-November 2019
(January-November 2018)
(according to customs statistics, percentage)
The second group in terms of foreign trade turnover in January-November 2019 are the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (31.9% of Russian foreign trade or 193.1 billion US dollars). Trade turnover with APEC countries decreased by 0.7%, including exports decreased by 4.5%, imports increased by 3.8%.
Trade turnover with the CIS countries decreased by 1.3% to $73.2 billion. Co EAEU countries trade turnover increased by 0.7% to $52.2 billion.
The balance of foreign trade between Russia and all countries decreased by 15.0% to 162.6 billion US dollars.
The foreign trade imbalance coefficient (ratio of balance to turnover) in January-November 2019 decreased to 26.9% compared to 30.6% in January-November 2018.
Based on the results of January-November 2019, a positive balance was observed in Russia’s trade with most of the most important groups of countries. At the level of individual states, Russia had a significant negative balance in trade with Vietnam (-2.4 billion US dollars) - due to a strong reduction in Russian supplies of rolled steel (-73%), other electrical machines and equipment (-98%), wheat (-77%). Also, a significant negative balance was observed in trade with France (-1.7 billion US dollars), Ireland (-1.1 billion US dollars), and Thailand (-1.0 billion US dollars).
Export of goods at the end of January-November 2019 amounted to 383.5 billion US dollars and decreased by 6.0% compared to January-November 2018 as a result of a decrease in the volume of supplies of energy goods (due to lower export prices), wheat and ferrous products metallurgy.
Raw materials export in January-November 2019 decreased by 6.7% to 182.1 billion US dollars compared to January-November 2018, which was due to a decrease in the value of exports of crude oil and natural gas as a result of a decrease in contract prices (in in kind there was an increase in supplies).
Non-resource exports in January-November 2019 amounted to 201.4 billion US dollars, decreasing by 5.4% compared to January-November 2018. The decrease was primarily due to a decrease in the value of petroleum product supplies.
Non-resource non-energy exports in January-November 2019 compared to January-November 2018 decreased by 0.5% to $133.4 billion. Largest decrease was recorded in semi-finished steel, hot-rolled flat steel, with the largest increases in raw and semi-processed gold and platinum, copper products and aluminum storage tanks.
At the level of the most important groups of countries, based on the results of January-November 2019, Russian exports were characterized by negative dynamics. Exports to the European Union fell by 7.8% to $172.6 billion. Most a significant decline was observed in supplies to Belgium (by 26.7%) - as a result of a decrease in exports of petroleum products and ferrous metals, Poland (by 25.5%) - petroleum products (by 29.8%) and ferrous metals (by 16.0% ), Germany (by 19.4%) - due to a reduction in supplies of petroleum products (by 21.4%) and copper (by 29.0%), Italy (by 10.8%) - as a result of a decrease in exports of petroleum products (by 13 .2%) and ferrous metals (by 18.0%). At the same time, supplies to the UK increased significantly (+27.1%) as a result of an increase in gold exports (by 942.9%).
Exports to APEC countries decreased in January-November 2019 compared to January-November 2018 by 4.5% to $101.1 billion, including to Vietnam (-52.0%) - as a result of a decrease supplies of wheat and ferrous metals to Taiwan (‑28.6%) - due to a reduction in petroleum products and ferrous metals. At the same time, supplies to Canada increased (+61.0%) due to increased exports of crude oil and coal.
The decrease in Russian exports to the CIS countries in January-November 2019 amounted to -3.0% (to 48.6 billion US dollars), including to Ukraine - by 28.1% - due to a decrease in supplies of petroleum products and fertilizers , to Belarus - by 7.6 percent. The decrease in Russian exports in January-November 2019 to Belarus was due to a decrease in supplies (in value terms) of petroleum products, crude oil, and scrap ferrous metals.
Fuel and energy products continue to dominate the commodity structure of exports; their share in January-November 2019 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 62.6% compared to January-November 2018. The value of exports of fuel and energy goods decreased by 8.6% to $240.2 billion. Exports of liquefied natural gas increased by 53.7% to $7.6 billion. Exports of crude oil decreased by 5.8% to $111.6 billion, petroleum products - by 15.9% to $60.7 billion, natural gas in gaseous state - by 15.4% to 37. $7 billion.
The basis of Russian exports, in addition to fuel and energy goods, are metals and products made from them, products chemical industry and rubber, the share of these three groups in January-November 2019 totaled 78.0% of the value of Russian exports.
Value of Russian imports according to the results of January-November 2019, it showed slightly positive dynamics and amounted to 220.9 billion US dollars, which is 1.7% higher than in January-November 2018. The increase is due to increased imports passenger cars and auto components, medicines, dairy products. Based on the results of January-November 2019, compared to January-November 2018, Russia’s imports from EU countries decreased by 1.7%. Russia's imports from APEC countries increased by 3.8%, from the CIS countries - by 2.2 percent.
The main article of Russian imports remains machinery, equipment and vehicles, purchases of which in January-November 2019 compared to January-November 2018 decreased by 1.2% to 101.4 billion US dollars, specific gravity of this product group in the structure of domestic imports amounted to 45.9 percent. Including import aircraft other (helicopters and airplanes) decreased by 19.2%, industrial and laboratory equipment - by 19.7%, telephone sets- by 7.4%. At the same time, significant growth was demonstrated in the import of fittings for pipelines and boilers - by 15.3%, vehicle bodies - by 15.1%, and passenger cars - by 9.6%.
The basis of Russian imports, in addition to machinery, equipment and vehicles, are chemical products and rubber, foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials, the share of these three product groups in January-November 2019, the structure of Russian purchases amounted to 77.8 percent.
In value terms, imports of food products in January-November 2019 remained unchanged, chemical products increased by 10.0% year-on-year. The most significant increase (in value terms) was the import of medicines (31.1%), serums and vaccines (65.0%), butter(46.5%), cheeses and cottage cheese (16.3%), ethyl alcohol (15.9%). The largest decline was observed in purchases of soybeans (-16.9%), apples and pears (-20.2%), fresh cattle meat (-34.8%) and aldehyde resins (-19.7%).
Far abroad countries are Russia's main trading partners. At the end of January-November 2019, their share in trade turnover was 87.9%, in exports - 87.3%, in imports - 88.9 percent.
Russia's foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in January-November 2019 amounted to $531.2 billion and decreased by 3.6 percent compared to January-November 2018. Exports decreased by 6.5% to $334.9 billion, imports increased by 1.7% to $196.3 billion.
The leading positions among the EU member countries are occupied by Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, which account for 46.1% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries.
The most important foreign trade partners among APEC countries are China, the USA, the Republic of Korea and Japan, which accounted for 85.6% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries in January-November 2019.
Based on the results of January-November 2019, China is Russia’s largest foreign trade partner (16.5% of Russia’s trade turnover or $99.6 billion).
The share of Russia's other largest partners in January-November 2019 was 8.0% for Germany, 7.5% for the Netherlands, 5.0% for the Republic of Belarus, 4.0% for the USA, 3.9% for Turkey, 3. 8% for Italy.
Foreign trade turnover of Russia with CIS countries according to the results of January-November 2019, it decreased by 1.3% to 73.2 billion US dollars. Russia's exports to the CIS countries decreased by 3.0% to $48.6 billion, while Russia's imports from the CIS countries increased by 2.2% to $24.6 billion. There was a trade surplus with all CIS countries in January-November 2019.
Source: Ministry of Economic Development of Russia
Trade
The EU is Russia's main trading partner, which accounted for 49.2% of Russian trade turnover in January-April 2014 (of which 70.6% were exports and 29.5% were imports). Russia, for its part, is one of the EU's three leading partners (after the USA and China).
In January-April 2014, the volume of trade between Russia and the European Union decreased by 3.4% compared to January-April 2013 and amounted to 103.2 billion US dollars.
The volume of Russian exports decreased by 2.7% and amounted to $91.2 billion, and Russian imports decreased by 5.0% to $38.9 billion (compared to January-April 2013). ).
Russia's positive balance in trade with EU countries in January-April 2014 amounted to $52.3 billion.
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | January-April 2013 | January-April 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | ||||||||
| EU | 382,4 | 236,3 | 307,0 | 394,0 | 410,3 | 417,7 | 134,8 | 130,2 |
| Rates of growth % | 35,1 | -38,2 | 29,9 | 28,3 | 4,1 | 1,9 | - | - 3,4 |
| EU share in Russia's foreign trade volume | 52,0 | 50,4 | 49,1 | 47,9 | 48,4 | 49,0 | 49,6 | 49,2 |
| Around the world | 734,7 | 469,0 | 625,4 | 822,5 | 846,9 | 851,7 | 271,6 | 264,6 |
| Rates of growth % | 33,2 | -36,2 | 33,3 | 31,2 | 3,0 | 0,6 | - | - 2,6 |
| 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | |
| TS | 60,1 | 69,6 | 66,2 | 19,3 | 16,5 | |||
| Rates of growth % | 35,2 | 15,8 | - 5,2 | - | -14,3 | |||
| Share in foreign trade volume | 7,3 | 8,2 | 7,8 | 7,1 | 6,2 | |||
| CIS | 106,3 | 68,6 | 91,3 | 124,3 | 129,2 | 121,9 | 37,4 | 35,3 |
| Rates of growth % | 29,0 | - 35,5 | 33,0 | 34,2 | 3,9 | - 5,9 | - | - 5,5 |
| Share in foreign trade volume | 14,5 | 14,6 | 14,6 | 15,1 | 15,2 | 14,3 | 13,8 | 13,3 |
| APEC | 149,6 | 97,1 | 145,2 | 195,9 | 200,7 | 208,5 | 66,0 | 68,0 |
| Rates of growth % | 40,2 | - 35,0 | 49,8 | 35,3 | 2,4 | 3,9 | - | 2,9 |
| Share in foreign trade volume | 20,4 | 20,7 | 23,2 | 23,8 | 23,7 | 24,5 | 24,3 | 25,7 |
| Export | ||||||||
| EU | 265,9 | 160,9 | 211,4 | 266,5 | 277,9 | 283,4 | 63,8 | 91,2 |
| Rates of growth % | 35,7 | - 30,5 | 31,0 | 26,0 | 4,2 | 2,2 | - | -2,7 |
| EU share in Russian exports | 56,9 | 53,3 | 53,3 | 51,6 | 52,7 | 53,5 | 54,5 | 53,5 |
| Around the world | 467,6 | 301,7 | 396,4 | 516,7 | 527,1 | 530,1 | 172,0 | 170,6 |
| Rates of growth % | 33,0 | - 35,5 | 31,4 | 30,0 | 2,0 | 0,6 | - | - 0,8 |
| Share in export volume | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 |
| TS | 39,0 | 43,2 | 40,3 | 12,2 | 10,8 | |||
| Rates of growth % | 31,5 | 10,8 | - 7,2 | - | - 11,5 | |||
| Share in export volume | 7,5 | 8,2 | 7,6 | 7,1 | 6,3 | |||
| CIS | 69,6 | 46,8 | 59,6 | 79,4 | 81,7 | 76,8 | 24,1 | 23,4 |
| Rates of growth % | 32,7 | - 32,9 | 27,4 | 31,3 | 2,9 | - 6,4 | - | - 2,9 |
| Share in export volume | 14,9 | 15,5 | 15,0 | 15,4 | 15,5 | 14,5 | 14,0 | 13,7 |
| APEC | 60,6 | 45,3 | 67,2 | 92,5 | 91,4 | 99,3 | 31,0 | 34,7 |
| Rates of growth % | 40,9 | - 24,7 | 48,6 | 38,3 | - 1,2 | 8,1 | - | 12,1 |
| Share in export volume | 12,9 | 15,0 | 16,9 | 17,9 | 17,3 | 18,7 | 18,0 | 20,3 |
| Import | ||||||||
| EU | 116,5 | 75,4 | 95,5 | 127,5 | 132,3 | 134,2 | 41,0 | 38,9 |
| Rates of growth % | 33,6 | - 35,3 | 26,8 | 33,5 | 3,7 | 1,3 | - | - 5,0 |
| EU share in Russian imports | 43,6 | 45,1 | 41,7 | 41,7 | 41,4 | 41,7 | 41,2 | 41,4 |
| Around the world | 267,1 | 167,3 | 228,9 | 305,8 | 319,8 | 321,5 | 99,5 | 94,0 |
| Rates of growth % | 33,6 | - 37,3 | 36,8 | 33,4 | 4,5 | 0,6 | - | - 5,6 |
| Share in import volume | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100, |
| TS | 21,1 | 26,4 | 25,8 | 7,0 | 5,7 | |||
| Rates of growth % | 42,6 | 25,1 | - 2,0 | - | - 19,0 | |||
| Share in import volume | 6,9 | 8,3 | 8,0 | 7,0 | 6,1 | |||
| CIS | 36,6 | 21,8 | 31,7 | 44,8 | 47,5 | 45,2 | 13,3 | 11,9 |
| Rates of growth % | 22,5 | - 40,5 | 44,8 | 39,6 | 6,0 | - 5,1 | - | - 10,3 |
| Share in import volume | 13,7 | 13,0 | 13,9 | 14,6 | 14,8 | 14,0 | 13,4 | 12,7 |
| APEC | 89,2 | 51,8 | 78,0 | 103,4 | 109,3 | 109,1 | 35,0 | 33,2 |
| Rates of growth % | 39,8 | - 41,9 | 50,8 | 32,7 | 5,6 | 0,1 | - | - 5,2 |
| Share in import volume | 33,4 | 30,9 | 34,1 | 33,8 | 34,2 | 33,9 | 35,2 | 35,3 |
Source: Federal Customs Service
Commodity structure of Russia-EU foreign trade in 2013
In the structure of Russian exports to the EU countries at the end of 2013, the main share of supplies falls on the mineral products product group (mainly fuel and energy products) - 85.0% of the total export volume.
The share of metals and products made from them is 6.4%, chemical industry products - 3.6%, machinery, equipment and vehicles (1.6%), precious stones and precious metals - 1.4%.
Main export goods (over 86% of all supplies): crude oil, petroleum products (liquid fuels not containing biodiesel, diesel fuel, does not contain biodiesel, straight-run gasoline), natural gas, coal, raw nickel, diamonds.
The import structure is formed by: machinery, equipment and vehicles - 50.6%, chemical industry products (22.6%), food and agricultural raw materials (11.2%).
The share of metals and products made from them is 5.6%, other goods (mainly furniture) - 3.5%, wood and pulp and paper products - 2.9%, textiles, products made from it, shoes (2.2 %).
Main imported goods (largest product items): electrical power and electrical equipment, electrical household appliances, telephone equipment, cars and trucks, parts and components for them, medicines and blood fractions, food products.
For reference: in the total exports of the European Union states, in the context of the main product groups, supplies of industrial products dominate - 79.1%, mineral raw materials account for 9.9%, food products and agricultural raw materials - 7.5% of the total export volume (hereinafter given statistical data from the WTO Secretariat).
17.3% of exports from European Union countries are supplied to the United States (-0.7 percentage points compared to 2011), China - 8.5%, Switzerland (8.0%), the Russian Federation - 7.3% (+ 1.1 percentage points to the 2011 level), Turkey (4.5%).
The rest of the world accounts for 54.4% of exports. In value terms, EU exports in 2012 (on FOB terms, excluding mutual trade between EU member countries) amounted to $2,166.8 billion, remaining at the 2011 level.
The structure of imports from EU countries is dominated by industrial products– 53.7% (-6.3 percentage points compared to 2011), for mineral raw materials and fuel and energy goods account for 34.6% (+4.4 p.p.), food and agricultural raw materials - 7.5%.
The largest suppliers of goods to the EU countries are: China -16.2% (-2.7 percentage points compared to 2011), the Russian Federation 11.9% (+1.5 percentage points), the United States - 11.5% (+0.1 p.p.), Switzerland 5.9% (+0.2 p.p.), Norway - 5.6% (+0.3 p.p.).
The rest of the countries account for 48.9% of the volume of imports from the European Union. In value terms, EU imports in 2012 (on CIF terms, excluding mutual trade between EU member countries) amounted to $2,301.1 billion, a decrease of 4% compared to the 2011 level.
The European Union, as an economic grouping, has a negative balance in trade in goods with countries around the world. The EU foreign trade deficit at the end of 2012 amounted to -134.3 billion US dollars or 3% of the total trade turnover of the EU with countries of the world (in 2011, the negative balance of the European Union amounted to 226.5 billion dollars or 5% of the volume of trade turnover European Union).
The coefficient of coverage of EU countries' imports by exports in 2012 was 0.94 (in 2011 – 0.91).
In trade in services with countries of the world, at the end of 2012, EU states rank first in terms of export volume ($830.6 billion, share in world exports of services - 24.80%) and imports ($651.1 billion, share - 20.13%), and have a positive balance (+179.5 billion dollars).
In the export of services largest share(62.7%) falls on the sector of other business services, transport services make up 22.2%, tourist services – 15,0%.
In the import of services, the majority (54.0%) also belongs to the sector of other business services, transport services account for 23.6%, and tourism services – 18.7%.
At the end of 2012, the EU member countries brought the overall balance of trade in goods and services to a positive balance of +45.2 billion dollars (in 2011, a negative balance of about -76.5 billion dollars was recorded in trade in goods and services of the European Union. ).
| HS Code | Name of product | Export | Import | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billion US dollars | Ud. weight (%) | Index 2013/2012 | billion US dollars. | Ud. weight (%) | Index 2013/2012 | ||
| 01 – 24 | food products and agricultural raw materials | 2,3 | 0,8 | 100,1 | 15,2 | 11,3 | 105,8 |
| 25 – 27 | mineral products, including: | 240,6 | 85,0 | 104,3 | 1,3 | 0,9 | 89,7 |
| 27 | mineral fuel, petroleum and distillation products | 239,5 | 84,6 | 104,3 | 0,9 | 0,7 | 87,3 |
| 28 – 40 | chemical industry products, rubber | 10,3 | 3,6 | 98,6 | 30,3 | 22,6 | 107,1 |
| 41 – 43 | leather raw materials, furs and products made from them | 0,4 | 0,1 | 104,6 | 0,4 | 0,3 | 95,9 |
| 44 – 49 | wood and pulp and paper products | 2,4 | 0,9 | 110,2 | 3,8 | 2,9 | 100,9 |
| 50 – 67 | textiles, textile products, shoes | 0,2 | 0,1 | 116,1 | 2,9 | 2,2 | 105,6 |
| 68 - 70, 91 –97 | other goods | 0,4 | 0,1 | 103,3 | 4,7 | 3,5 | 101,3 |
| 71 | pearl, gems, metals | 3,8 | 1,4 | 58,0 | 0,2 | 0,2 | 105,2 |
| 72 – 83 | metals, products made from them | 18,2 | 6,4 | 88,7 | 7,5 | 5,6 | 103,0 |
| 84 – 90 | machines, equipment, vehicles | 4,6 | 1,6 | 122,5 | 67,9 | 50,6 | 97,4 |
| Total | 283,2 | 100,0 | 102,1 | 134,2 | 100,0 | 101,0 | |
Nowadays, information is widely disseminated in the media and the Internet that Russia has no serious trading partners and our trade turnover is very modest. But is it? According to statistics from the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation (FCS), from January to August 2016, our total trade turnover amounted to $288.5 billion, and of which exports are $176 billion, and import – $112.5 billion. One way or another, we sell more than we buy.
It is worth noting that trade turnover nevertheless decreased by 18.2%. Nothing can be done, the unfavorable economic situation, sanctions, foreign policy pressure - all this harms the joint business. At the same time, exports decreased by 25%, and imports by 4.8%. So who is Russia trading with?
Main trading partners of Russia by region, January-August 2016
Russia’s main trading partners, despite the sanctions, are still EU countries – $124.9 billion. Trade turnover with the countries of the Eurasian Union (EAEU) is still $9.4 billion, but that’s it for now. However, if we consider in country equivalent, the main trading partner is China - almost $40.2 billion. In second place is Germany with $24.9 billion, and in third place is the Netherlands with $20.5 billion. So, trading with Russia is profitable and many countries not only did not reduce the volume of trade with us, but, on the contrary, increased it. For example, China, France and the Netherlands. The import of their goods and services to Russia has only increased.
Main trading partners of Russia by country, January-August 2016
- INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND UNIONS
- FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OF RUSSIA
- IMPORT
- EXPORT
This article discusses the main directions of development foreign economic activity Russia, including the participation of our state in major international organizations and unions that regulate the exchange of goods between countries, as well as the structure of Russian imports and exports.
- Development of accounting for export-import transactions in modern economic conditions
- Legal support and accounting of export operations
- Main aspects of ensuring Russia's foreign economic security
Taking into account the changes taking place in the global economy and to simplify entry into the foreign market, Russia is adjusting its foreign trade policy. The growth of foreign trade turnover indicates the building of mutually beneficial relationships with foreign partners and the correctness of the chosen course of Russian foreign policy.
In this article we will consider the main directions of development of Russia's foreign economic activity, including the participation of our state in the main international organizations and unions that regulate the exchange of goods between countries, the structure of imports and exports.
The most striking manifestation of the economic part of globalization is international trade. Every year, the turnover of foreign sales and purchases of various types of goods is only increasing, and international unions and organizations are being created to expand opportunities for the exchange of products between countries and simplify transactions. The largest and most influential world organizations are the World trade Organization(WTO; English World Trade Organization (WTO), European Union (EU), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and a relatively young association consisting of only three member countries - the Customs Union. The creation of such organizations greatly simplifies the process of interstate exchange of goods and services. Russia, as a participant, is not a member of only one of the global organizations listed above - the EU, but this does not detract from trade turnover with states that are members of the European Union. On the contrary, the lion's share, namely half, of Russian turnover falls on countries. EU And every year the total value of exports and imports is only growing.
To simplify the exchange of goods between Russia and Belarus, a Customs Union was created, which also includes Kazakhstan. There are many agreements between these three states regarding trade and exchange of services. The main document regulating relations regarding the movement of goods across the border of the Customs Union is the Customs Code of the Customs Union. This regulatory document is universal for countries participating in the Customs Union and replaces national Customs Codes. The document was adopted in 2009 and since then changes have been made to some of its articles.
Paragraph 2 of Article 1 of the Customs Code provided that customs regulation in the Customs Union was carried out in accordance with the Customs Code of the Customs Union, and in the part not regulated by this code - in accordance with customs legislation participating countries. Since the changes were made to this article that part that is not regulated by the Customs Code of the Customs Union is also regulated by the customs legislation of a member state of the Customs Union, but before legal relations are established at the level of legislation of the Customs Union.
Also in the fourth article an addition was made to the definition of the term “release of goods”. IN new edition this concept is expanded and looks like this: releasing goods is an action customs authorities, allowing interested parties to use the goods in accordance with the terms of the declared customs procedure or in accordance with the conditions established for individual categories goods not subject to customs procedures in accordance with the Customs Code.
Article 16 of the Customs Code of the Customs Union has been amended to allow customs representatives to provide reporting now in in electronic format. In our opinion, this is an important change, and it will significantly simplify and speed up reporting procedures to customs authorities.
According to amendments to the Federal Law of December 21, 2013 No. 372-FZ “On Amendments to the federal law“On Export Control” (the document came into force on June 22, 2014), the President of the Russian Federation will determine the list of foreign states and types of controlled goods that can be exported from the territory of the Russian Federation without a license, and will also decide on termination or suspension actions of this mode.
With the increase and expansion of international trade relations, and not only trade relations, there is a need to reform, and sometimes issue new, regulations governing the foreign economic activity of the state. Russia keeps pace with the changes taking place in the global trade arena, and to simplify entry into the foreign market, it adjusts and adjusts its foreign trade policy. All these actions are already bearing fruit and Russian turnover, both import and export, is only increasing. The growth of foreign trade turnover indicates the building of mutually beneficial relationships with foreign partners and the correctness of the chosen course of Russian foreign policy.
Since January 1, 2015, we have been living in a new reality, the name of which is the Eurasian Economic Union, the agreement on the creation of which Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in May 2014 in Astana. Armenia signed an agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union in October 2014. The EAEU Customs Code is being developed. Its project, in the development of which entrepreneurs from all member states of the union are actively participating, is already aimed at domestic coordination.
Next, let's look at the structure of Russia's imports and exports. According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, Russia's foreign trade turnover for the 1st quarter of 2014 amounted to 189,322 million US dollars. The foreign trade surplus amounted to $56 billion. The main trading partners of the Russian Federation were the countries European Union(EU), which provided 49.7% of trade turnover, the second most important trading partners were the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, which provided Russia with 25.6% of its trade turnover, the share of the CIS, the third most important trading partner of the Russian Federation, was 12 .7%.
Table 1 Main trading partners of Russia, million US dollars
If we consider countries outside economic blocs, Russia’s main trading partner is the People’s Republic of China, trade turnover with which increased by 2.2% and in absolute value amounted to $21,654 million (trade share 11.4%), while Exports of Russian goods to China increased by 7.9%, but the trade balance with China remains negative - $2.8 billion. The second foreign trade partner of the Russian Federation is the Netherlands, with a turnover of 17,952 million US dollars (share of 9.5%), the third is Germany, with a turnover of 17 billion US dollars (share of 9%).
Table 2 Foreign trade of Russia by country*, million US dollars
Total turnover |
Trade balance |
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NETHERLANDS |
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GERMANY |
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BELARUS |
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UNITED STATES |
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REPUBLIC OF KOREA |
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UNITED KINGDOM |
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KAZAKHSTAN |
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FINLAND |
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SWITZERLAND |
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SLOVAKIA |
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CZECH REPUBLIC |
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BRAZIL |
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SINGAPORE |
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* Only those countries with quarterly turnover exceeding US$1 billion are shown.
It is noteworthy that despite sanctions from the United States of America, trade turnover with this country increased by 13.5%, while export growth was 26.6% and import growth was 6.2%.
Table 3 Dynamics of Russia’s foreign trade turnover, million US dollars
The share of non-CIS countries in the structure of trade turnover of the Russian Federation according to the results of the first quarter of 2014 was 87.3%, the share of the CIS was 12.7%.
For the 1st quarter of 2014, Russia exported goods worth 122,690,273 thousand US dollars. Russia's main export goods are energy resources [oil, gas, coal, etc.], which occupy 72% of its export structure.
Table 4 Structure of Russian exports, thousand US dollars
Name of product industry |
Export share |
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Mineral products |
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Metals and products made from them |
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Other goods |
For the 1st quarter of 2014, Russia imported goods worth 66,632,659 thousand US dollars. The main goods imported (imported) into Russia are mechanical engineering products - cars, machines, machinery and vehicles, which account for 47% of the import structure. The second significant group of goods imported into the Russian Federation is chemical industry products, which account for 15% of the import share; the third significant group of goods is food, which also accounts for 15%.
Table 5 Structure of Russian imports, thousand US dollars
Name of product industry |
Far abroad |
Export share |
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Food products and agricultural raw materials |
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Mineral products |
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Fuel and energy products |
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Chemical industry products, rubber |
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Leather raw materials, furs and products made from them |
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Wood and pulp and paper products |
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Textile, textile products and shoes |
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Precious stones, precious metals and products made from them |
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Metals and products made from them |
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Machinery, equipment and vehicles |
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Other goods |
The Russian economy, the structure of its exports and sales markets certainly need diversification. Foreign trade surplus, inflow foreign currency is provided exclusively through the sale of hydrocarbons. In the near future, developed and developing markets, primarily the economies of China, the USA, Japan, Brazil, etc., will certainly demonstrate an increase in demand for energy resources, but the economy of the Russian Federation has many competitive industries that, to date, have completely unrealized potential . It is in realizing the potential of unrealized industries that lies the diversification and future strength of the Russian economy.
Considering latest trends development of the global economy in the context of a geopolitical crisis, the Government of the Russian Federation approved priority anti-crisis response measures in 2015. The key areas of action of the Government of the Russian Federation regarding Russia's foreign economic activity over the coming months will include: support for import substitution and exports for a wide range of non-raw materials, including high-tech goods; promoting the development of small and medium-sized businesses by reducing financial and administrative costs; creating opportunities to attract working and investment resources at an acceptable cost in the most significant sectors of the economy.
Bibliography
- Customs Code of the Customs Union (Appendix to the agreement on the Customs Code of the Customs Union, adopted by the Decision Interstate Council of the EurAsEC at the level of heads of state dated November 27, 2009 No. 17) (as amended on April 16, 2010).
- Federal Law of December 21, 2013 No. 372 - Federal Law “On Amendments to the Federal Law “On Export Control”.
- Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated January 27, 2015 No. 98-r “On approval of the plan of priority measures to ensure sustainable economic development and social stability in 2015.”